The effects of war losses on mortality estimates for Italy

For countries that experience substantial war losses in a given time period, the exclusion of military deaths can have an important impact on estimates of mortality and life expectancy. In this paper, we start by reviewing Vallin’s work in accounting for French war losses. We then attempt to apply comparable methods to Italy in order to account for the effects of war. The results indicate that estimates currently available from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) greatly underestimate period mortality during wartime among all Italian males, and may even underestimate mortality among civilian males. Finally, we discuss how failing to account for war mortality presents problems in making inter-country mortality comparisons.civilian, France, Italy, life expectancy, military, mortality, war, war losses, war mortality

A framework for evaluating the effectiveness of flood emergency management systems in Europe

Calls for enhancing societal resilience to flooding are echoed across Europe alongside mounting evidence that flood risk will increase in response to climate change amongst other risk-enhancing factors. At a time where it is now widely accepted that flooding cannot be fully prevented, resilience discourse in public policy stresses the importance of improving societal capacities to absorb and recover from flood events. Flood emergency management has thus emerged as a crucial strategy in flood risk management. However, the extent to which emergency management supports societal resilience is dependent on the effectiveness of governance and performance in practice. Drawing from the extensive body of literature documenting the success conditions of so-called effective emergency management more broadly, this study formulates an evaluation framework specifically tailored to the study of Flood Emergency Management Systems (FEMS) in Europe. Applying this framework, this research performs a cross-country comparison of FEMS in the Netherlands, England, Poland, France, and Sweden. Important differences are observed in how FEMS have evolved in relation to differing contextual backgrounds (political, cultural, administrative and socio-economic) and exposures to flood hazard. Whereas the organization and coordination of actors are functioning effectively, other aspects of effective FEMS are relatively under-developed in several countries, such as provisions for institutional learning, recovery-based activities and community preparedness. Drawing from examples of good practice, this paper provides a critical reflection on the opportunities and constraints to enhancing the effectiveness of FEMS in Europe

Risk-based tunnel design for consequences of road accidents. The role of tunnel lenght

Tunnel extension is an under-analysed variable in road tunnel accidents despite being a dimensioning parameter for the purposes of users’ safety according to Directive 2004/54/EC. Recent studies have shown a correlation between the tunnel length and consequences of accidents. The analysis of fire events which occurred in tunnels indicates that in many cases fires are triggered by road accidents. By analysing the road accidents in Italy, the study aims to assess the relative risk of accidents with serious consequences for different classes of road tunnels. The second objective was to assess, using a vehicle type (or size) approach, the corresponding probability of accidents involving vehicles or trucks and special vehicles resulting in serious consequences (domino effect). We analysed the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) dataset on tunnel accidents which occurred between 2018 and 2020 on Italian public roads, involving at least one vehicle. Of these, we extracted tunnel accidents, classified by tunnel length and estimated the corresponding probability of serious consequences. The analysis identified 1,885 case studies of tunnel accidents that occurred in approximately 265 long tunnels and 450 short tunnels and underpasses. Compared with “controls”, “size” was found to be more than double in long tunnels where the related probability of serious accident consequences exceeded 50% more than those of short tunnels. We found that the related probability associated with serious accident consequences in tunnels over 500 m in length was higher than in short tunnels, except for trucks and special vehicles. Road accidents and research on risk evaluation of the effects associated with long and short tunnels are rare. The study aims to fill these gaps

Risk based tunnel design by vehicle involved in road crashes. Models and tunnel length

Between 2018 and 2020, in the approximately 2,600 km of Italian road tunnels, 2,899 people were injured and 60 died in 1,885 road accidents. The accident frequency was lower than on open roads, while the injury/fatality rate was higher. Using the recursive partitioning and regression trees method (rpart), we developed two accident models useful for predicting the probability of involvement of "vehicle type" in short and long tunnels. Variables such as the type of accident, the circumstances, the type of road, the carriageway, the time of the accident, the journey purpose (whether work-related or not), and the length of the tunnel defined the nodes and paths of the regression tree associated with a vehicle type involved. The “road type” was the best predictors for short tunnels while the “journey purpose” was the best predictor for long tunnels. The most important result of the study refers to the similarity between the probability of an accident in short and long tunnels for a specific segment of road users: commuting and non-commuting car drivers and drivers of heavy goods vehicles on-duty. The study showed that this road user segment in short tunnels has an accident probability half that observed in long tunnels

Shaping flood risk governance through science-policy interfaces: insights from England, France and The Netherlands

In the face of increasing threats from flooding, there are growing calls to strengthen and improve arrangements of flood risk governance (FRG). This endeavour requires an appreciation of the multitude of factors stabilising and driving governance dynamics. So-called catalyst flood events, policy champions and advocacy coalitions have tended to dominate this study to date, whilst the potential role played by Science Policy Interfaces (SPIs) has been somewhat neglected and often approached in a reductionist and fragmented way. This paper addresses this gap by drawing from in-depth policy analysis and stakeholder interviews conducted within England, France and the Netherlands under the auspices of the EU-FP7 STAR-FLOOD project. The analysis reveals four prominent ways in which SPIs shape FRG, by i) facilitating the diversification of Flood Risk Management (FRM) strategies; ii) increasing their connectivity, iii) facilitating a decentralisation of FRM and iv) fostering inter-country learning. It identifies different roles of specific interfaces (structures) and interfacing mechanisms (processes) in shaping governance dynamics. This way, the analysis reveals various ‘entry points’ through which SPIs can steer FRG, either along existing pathways, or towards new and potentially transformative change. The study shows that SPIs are a hitherto underexposed factor explaining dynamics in flood risk governance which merits additional systematic empirical study

Object descriptors based on a list of rectangles: method and algorithm

peer reviewedMost morphological operators use a unique structuring element, possibly at different scales, to describe an object. In addition, morphological algorithms are often restricted to 1D structuring elements, combinations of 1D elements, or isotropic structuring elements (like circles), because of the lack of methods directly applicable to 2D structuring elements. While these descriptors have proved useful in the past, we propose an alternative that uses the list of maximal rectangles contained in a set X. In particular, we focus on an opening that preserves large rectangles contained in a set X and on its companion 2D algorithm that builds a list of all the maximal rectangles that fit inside an arbitrary set X. This list is the base of new descriptors that have been used successfully for machine learning tasks

Elevated risks of death for diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases in Italian AIDS cases

After the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART), an increased incidence of insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus (DM), and cardiovascular diseases has been described. The impact of such conditions on mortality in the post-HAART era has been also assessed in various modes in the literature. In this paper, we report on the death risks for DM, myocardial infarction, and chronic ischemic heart diseases that were investigated among 9662 Italian AIDS cases diagnosed between 1999 and 2005. Death certificates reporting DM, myocardial infarction, and chronic ischemic heart diseases were reviewed to identify the underlying cause of death, and to compare the observed numbers of deaths with the expected ones from the sex- and age-matched, general population of Italy. Person-years at risk of death were computed from date of AIDS diagnosis up to date of death or to December 31, 2006. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed. DM and cardiovascular diseases were the cause of death for 43 out of 3101 deceased AIDS cases (i.e., 1.4% of all deaths). In comparison with the general population, the risks of death were 6.4-fold higher for DM (95% CI:3.5-10.8), 2.3-fold higher for myocardial infarction (95% CI:1.4-3.7) and 3.0 for chronic ischemic heart diseases (95% CI: 1.5-5.2)